Block 5: IPCC AR6 Deep Dive + Chennai Climate Brief Assigned
IPCC projection chart showing 5 SSP scenarios for global temperature 2020-2100, ranging from ~1.5°C to ~5°C warming.
Task: Which scenario do you think we're on now? What would have to change for us to follow a lower scenario?
Answer in your Field Notebook, dated.
I can explain what the IPCC is, distinguish projection from prediction, read an SSP scenario chart, AND identify three Chennai-area adaptation challenges I'm considering for my Climate Brief.
I can use real data and model results to forecast climate change where I live, and say how confident to be.
"Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems."
Where this runs:
- U4 B5: IPCC AR6 Deep Dive + Chennai Climate Brief Assigned ← you are here
- U4 B6: Climate Models: How They Work, How They're Wrong, How to Read Them
- U4 B7: Regional Climate Change: From Global Average to Chennai's Monsoon
Assessed:
Chennai Climate Brief: the regional-projection components (T/T)
On track looks like:
Your Chennai projections cite data AND name the model's uncertainty: forecast, not prophecy.
I can check an AI's answer against real sources and decide: use it, fix it, or bin it.
In brief: "Evaluate whether an AI output should be accepted, revised, or rejected (paraphrased; full framework at ailiteracyframework.org)"
Where this runs:
- U0 B1: Welcome + How We Work
- U0 B2: OPVL Across Source Types
- U0 B3: AI as a Source + Documentation Protocol
- U0 B4: Source Dossier Launch + Choosing Your Topic
- U0 B5: Source Dossier Work Day 2: AI Source + Documentation
- U1 B1: Phenomenon Launch: What Makes a Planet Habitable?
- U1 B3: Mars as Calibration: What Does Earth Have That Mars Doesn't?
- U1 B5: Exoplanet Detection: Transits and What They Tell Us
- U1 B6: Reading Exoplanet Data Cards: Choosing Your Planet
- U1 B7: Habitability Framework: Building the Comparison
- U2 B3: Rivers as Landscape Sculptors
- U2 B6: Field Photo / Map Analysis Work Day
- U2 B7: Reading the Landscape: Worked Example + OPVL
- U4 B5: IPCC AR6 Deep Dive + Chennai Climate Brief Assigned ← you are here
- U4 B6: Climate Models: How They Work, How They're Wrong, How to Read Them
Assessed:
Every AI Documentation Template: the 'one thing the AI got wrong' field
On track looks like:
You catch specific errors ('it said 2024; the report says 2023'), and you've stopped writing 'AI can hallucinate.'
What today is about
The unit pivots today. From science to assessment. The IPCC enters the conversation.
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is not a research paper. It's a synthesis: every 6-8 years, hundreds of scientists summarize thousands of papers into a report that policymakers can act on. Today: how the IPCC works, what its working groups do, what "SSP scenarios" mean (SSP1-1.9 through SSP5-8.5), and what the confidence-level language ("likely" / "very likely" / "virtually certain") actually means in probability terms.
The OPVL move on AR6 figures is different from OPVL on a single news article. AR6 figures synthesize hundreds of model runs across multiple scenarios. The Origin is "IPCC AR6 WG1"; the Purpose is "inform policymakers"; the Value is "current scientific consensus on uncertainty ranges"; the Limitation is "models can't predict specific local events, only project ensemble behavior under specific assumptions." Today's the day to internalize that move.
Today is also the day the Chennai Climate Brief is assigned. The 8 adaptation challenges are released. Policy Panel format previewed. From this block forward, every U4 activity feeds the Brief.
Today also introduces the Policy Aide, a coach for writing to a policy audience. It won't write your brief; it will push your recommendations to be specific, costed, and honest about trade-offs.
Before you start the work
Start with the Interact: it anchors the day and runs with the whole class. The Read is today's assignment, and the Watch sets it up.
Today's work: choose one path
Today is challenge-consideration day. All four paths end with you having a top-3 list. The path you pick is about how you want to consider the options.
Open your Class Notebook and type today's entry header as Heading 2:
A: Feb 1 | U4 B5 | IPCC AR6 Deep DiveB: Feb 2 | U4 B5 | IPCC AR6 Deep Dive
What you're submitting today
Top-3 list with reasoning. Block 7 is where you lock #1; today you arrive there with candidates.
Three challenges, ranked. For each: two sentences. Sentence one: why this challenge interests you specifically. Sentence two: what scientific concept (greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, IPCC scenario, model uncertainty, regional projection) it most depends on. Format: 3 short bullets.
Submit via Google Classroom (link posted in August)One question before you leave
Three to five minutes. Your answer is saved to your reflection journal, where you can read back everything you have written this year.
Use this to clarify your top choice before Block 7's challenge lock.
Today's reflection is in Google Classroom, under Reflection Journal.
Link posted in AugustSign in with your school account. Your teacher can see what you write here.